Strange Data In GUHSDRace

I gathered data for the Secure Accurate Elections project but I went a bit too far, collecting all the data for two precincts. Then I found out they only wanted data for three races. However, I noticed some remarkable data in the GUHSD race. Take a look.

First, I want you to look at some other races for comparison. You will note that they mainly mirror the final results, esp. for this county. And, all the machines reported similar results. Except for the GUHSD Race.

First, notice that each machine was about equally used, except for 558720-5 which had only 33 votes. However, according to sampling theory, we need only about 30 samples to estimate a fairly large population.

In the race for Governor, we can note that the leader led on every machine and the counts looked very similar. Same for Garamendi/McClintock and Bowen/McPherson. Indeed, in this conservative East County area, these state wide races were quite different from the actual results, being counter-balanced by the rest of the state. We can't use local polling to determine statewide results.

In the Hunter/Rinaldi race, the counts are very consistent, and these counts are also very consistent with the county as a whole. Indeed, it should be easy to figure out how a race is going by just randomly polling a small number of voters in this precinct. It seems to mirror the county quite well.

I won't go on to list many more races. I can tell you they are much like these in that all machines were roughly the same.

Finally, take a look at the GUHSD race. In the first seven machines, Sobel either dramatically leads, or he is the second or third place finisher. However, the last two machines give quite anamolous results. Unlike every other race at these precincts, these two machines give the votes to Kelly and Groce. Why?

Precinct 558720 558800
Machine ID 1 2 4 5 2 1 3 4 5
Ballots Cast 62 54 50 33 68 60 63 59 61
 
Angelides 12 13 11 10 16 12 12 12 10
Schwarzenegger 49 29 38 22 51 46 50 44 51
 
Garamendi 19 17 19 13 16 17 22 21 19
McClintock 39 31 30 20 44 39 37 37 39
 
Bowen 15 18 14 12 20 18 17 20 16
McPherson 40 29 33 17 42 38 37 33 39
 
Hunter 38 37 29 19 45 37 35 38 43
Rinaldi 17 11 16 12 17 18 18 16 13
 
Hoy 23 18 22 15 28 23 27 17 26
Kelly 19 15 11 10 25 22 14 29 26
Sundstrom 22 11 23 12 21 13 19 14 16
Groce 22 14 16 10 18 19 13 28 23
Shield 17 16 10 12 23 16 15 26 20
Sobel 29 18 31 14 25 22 22 19 16

-- Raymond Lutz - 10 Nov 2006
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Topic revision: r1 - 2006-11-10, RaymondLutz
 

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