77thStateAssemblyDistrict

represents 423,000 plus people – more than the population of Wyoming. This district includes all, or portions of El Cajon, La Mesa, Santee, Ramona, Lakeside, Jamul, and the City of San Diego. Includes all Miramar Naval Air Station and the center of University City. There were 206,555 registered voters on Jan 22, 2008

Key Issues in 2008

  • Sunrise Powerlink -- Large transmission line to be run 150 miles from Mexicali to Warner Springs
  • Blackwater Potrero -- 824 acre mercenary Training camp in Potrero
  • Grossmont Healthcare Board -- One full-service emergency hospital for the entire east county incurred three avoidable deaths in recent months.
  • Santee Lakes Privatization -- Joel Anderson wanted to privatize Santee Lakes and turn it over to KOA Kampgrounds.
  • Budget stalemate -- Anderson believes that taxes hurt the economy and he has signed a no-tax increase pledge. Lutz believes reasonable taxes actually helps the economy and we must adequately fund our governmental services.
  • Border Issues -- Some fencing is appropriate near communities but a continuous fence will not fix our immigration problems, and comprehensive reform is the appropriate approach.
  • Tribal Governments -- The 77th Assembly District is the home of large and well funded Native American tribes, such as Sycuan, Viejas, Barona, and Campo.

Population (2001)

  COUNT PCT% 1991 DIFF
TOTAL 423,388 100.00% 0.00%
HISPANIC 63,697 15.04% -11.03%
WHITE 315,834 74.60% 24.80%
BLACK 14,357 3.39% -4.59%
ASIAN 15,925 3.76% -8.95%
HPI 1,839 0.43% -0.31%
NAT.AM. 5,784 1.37% 0.52%
OTHER 3,916 0.92% -0.01%

Places in the District (2001)

PLACE %IN POP
San Diego County 15.05% 423,388
Alpine (U) 100.00% 13,143
Borrego Springs (U) 100.00% 2,535
Bostonia (U) 100.00% 15,169
Casa de Oro-Mount Helix (U) 91.00% 17,175
Crest (U) 100.00% 2,716
El Cajon (C) 100.00% 94,869
Granite Hills (U) 100.00% 3,246
Harbison Canyon (U) 100.00% 3,645
Jamul (U) 85.73% 5,075
La Mesa (C) 100.00% 54,749
Lakeside (U) 100.00% 19,560
Ramona (U) 100.00% 15,691
Rancho San Diego (U) 100.00% 20,155
Remainder of San Diego (R) 26.88% 39,332
San Diego (C) 2.81% 34,320
San Diego Country Estates (U) 100.00% 9,262
Santee (C) 100.00% 52,975
Spring Valley (U) 0.00% 0
Winter Gardens (U) 100.00% 19,771

Recent History in this district

Election Registration Results
  Party Voters Percent Candidate Vote Percent
1996 (P) Dem     Janet Gastil 48,714 39.81%
Rep     Steve Baldwin 68,475 55.96%
DTS          
Total       122,367  
1998 Dem     Marge Carlson 37,962 38.75%
Rep     Steve Baldwin 56,622 57.80%
DTS          
Total       97,962  
2000 (P) Dem 80,052 38.21% Todd Keegan 52,554 41.20%
Rep 84,848 40.50% Jay La Suer 66,645 52.25%
DTS 31,896 15.22%      
Total 209,506     127,550  
2002 Dem 71,655 31.28% Sarah Lowery 30270 28.6%
Rep 107,155 46.77% Jay La Suer 70315 66.4%
DTS 37,055 16.17%      
Total 229,096     105832  
2004 (P) Dem 71,355 30.06% Chris Larkin 53,051 32.17%
Rep 110,941 46.73% Jay La Suer 106,827 64.78%
DTS 43,489 18.32%      
Total 237,400     164,900  
2006 Dem 62,934 29.42% Chris Larkin 41,292 35.97%
Rep 99,957 46.73% Joel Anderson 69,436 60.49%
DTS 40,803 19.08%      
Total 213,900     114,787  
2008-02 Dem 61,845 29.94%      
Rep 94,683 45.84%      
DTS 40,162 19.44%      
Total 206,555     124,134  
2008-06 Dem 64,772 30.41% Raymond Lutz 26,384 37.85%
Rep 96,507 45.32% Joel Anderson 43,016 61.70%
DTS 41,806 19.63%      
Total 212,946     69,712  
2008-11 Dem 71,343 30.90% Raymond Lutz 52564 38.88%
Rep 101,466 43.95% Joel Anderson 75269 55.67%
Lib 1,424 0.61% Richard G. Belitz 7361 5.44%
DTS 47,329 20.50%      
Total 230,839        

Notes for 2008-11 election
  • Registration for as of 2008-11-02, but there were still 15,000 registration forms to process.
  • Total of R+D Registrations is 71,343 + 101,466 = 172809. Of this, there are 41.28% Democrats and 58.71% Republicans.
  • Of vote received as of 11-06, total of R+D votes is 52564 + 75269 = 127833. Of this, 41.11% are Democratic and 58.88% Republicans.
  • Therefore, without massive media exposure, voters DO NOT CROSS PARTY LINES, and Decline-to-State voters vote break out just like the party affiliations.
  • To win this seat (if we do not have more media exposure), we need 75,269 - 52,564=22,705 Democratic voters or half as many Republican converts.
  • There are about 56,929 unregistered possible voters, meaning we need to register about 40% of the remaining voters as Democrats and register no Republicans.

  • Current (2008-06) deficit is 31,735, assuming DTS voters split evenly (which they don't).
  • Note change in district registration totals due to redistricting jerrymandering from 2000 to 2002 election.

Candidates

Notes

From Census 2000

County Population, 18 years and over Citizens, 18 years and over Percent citizens, 18 years and over
  Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
San Diego County 2,093,082 1,042,461 1,050,621 1,788,073 897,147 890,926 85.4 86.1 84.8

Could we make up the difference by sending out registration forms by mail?

  • Total population of San Diego County (in Year 2000): 2,813,833
  • Percent of Population, 18 years and over: 74%
  • Percent of population, Citizens, 18 years and over: 63.5% <-- This is the total number of possible voters.
  • Assuming 425,000 is the correct population of the district, then we would have a total pool of 269,875 possible voters.
  • There are 212,946 registered voters, leaving 56,929 unregistered possible voters.
  • According to PoliticalData.com, there are 212,362 voters and 119,152 houses, or 56% of the number of voters.
  • A mailing to reach all unregistered voters would require 31,880 mailers.
  • Postcards could be mailed at the rate of 0.33 to 0.42 each, according to Pure Postcards.
  • Assuming 0.33 ea., a invitation to register could be mailed to all unregistered citizens over 18 for $10,520
  • Assume that 5% of those who recieve the mailer actually respond (which is a high rate), then 2846 people would register.
  • At a $3 bounty, we would realize revenue of $8538, making the net cost of the effort $1982
  • There are other costs that will be incurred regarding sending out the registration form, etc.

The problem is identifying citizens over 18 who are not registered. However, the complete list of registered voters could be subtracted from the list of all the residents.

This strategy will only work in a climate where we expect most new voters to register as Democrats.

Raw Count Data from PoliticalData.com

 VotersHouses
TOTAL214,611120,067
PHONE134,09173,408
DEMOCRATS65,45448,321
REPUBLICANS96,86463,285
DECLINE TO STATE42,37734,623
AMERICAN INDEPENDENT5,8365,346
GREEN927877
PEACE & FREEDOM383371
LIBERTARIAN1,3621,259
MISC1,4081,320
PRIMARY QUALIFIED DTS43,78535,625
INDEPENDENT48,43938,915
MINOR PARTY LIBERAL1,7241,641
MINOR PARTY CONSERVATIVE2,1301,951
PURE DEM40,57828,263
PURE GOP66,64240,766
MALE99,24083,089
FEMALE114,30894,724
GENDER UNKNOWN1,0631,042
AGE 18-2420,96217,739
AGE 25-3430,09524,331
AGE 35-4434,13527,103
AGE 45-5448,33137,603
AGE 55-6438,72130,311
AGE 65+42,36731,890
HOMEOWNER134,37274,844
MOBILE HOME11,2197,699
EMAIL38,82132,393
RENTER37,68128,860
FOREIGN BORN14,01711,603
US BORN190,448110,928
AFRICAN AMERICAN00
LATINO19,96413,408
ASIAN3,8812,573
CHINESE644462
CHINESE / KOREAN11684
CHINESE / VIETNAMESE8667
CHINESE / KOREAN / VIET5038
FILIPINO1,369960
JAPANESE556372
KOREAN215153
SE ASIAN2616
VIETNAMESE818491
ASIAN / ANGLO558392
ARMENIAN217146
EAST INDIAN196137
JEWISH4,4402,948
PERMANENT ABSENTEE VOTER85,37756,304
1+AV85,70055,993
1+AV OR PAV100,64765,084
2+AV64,21442,916
2+AV OR PAV90,25659,050
3+AV49,54033,658
3+AV OR PAV87,98457,748
REG<11/0078,11351,148
REG 11/00 - 10/0326,70721,223
REG 10/03 - 11/0433,48727,149
REG 11/04 - 11/0661,00446,770
REG 11/06 - 2/0821,52018,596
REG>2/0819,25416,801
VOTED 2000 PRIMARY89,21260,062
VOTED 2000 GENERAL121,57078,719
VOTED 2002 PRIMARY62,94543,086
VOTED 2002 GENERAL95,30662,424
VOTED 2003 STATEWIDE RECALL122,97777,974
VOTED 2004 PRIMARY91,60360,032
VOTED 2004 GENERAL158,29095,856
VOTED 2005 STATEWIDE SPECIAL105,30567,500
VOTED 2006 PRIMARY74,45049,640
VOTED 2006 GENERAL121,05476,066
VOTED 2008 PRIMARY FEBRUARY123,38777,236
VOTED 2008 PRIMARY JUNE74,87149,342

Topic attachments
I Attachment Action Size Date Who Comment
AD772001.jpgjpg AD772001.jpg manage 202 K 26 Jun 2014 - 21:22 Raymond Lutz AD77 showing the change in the district boundaries
Topic revision: r18 - 11 Mar 2015, RaymondLutz
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